Point of View: ‘Foresight is your most valuable tool’ – Crop Production Magazine

As the focus shifts from the end of this season to the strategic decisions which will shape the next, it’s time to look at the ‘bigger picture’.

While weather, wheat prices, and input costs are out of control, careful planning of cropping and budgeting gives greater control over risk and profit.

Setting a clear and realistic budget puts you in a better position to act quickly and decisively come autumn. Whether that means securing inputs at a favourable price, locking in forward contracts for wheat, or reassessing break crop choices, foresight is your most valuable tool.

It’s tempting to look at gross margins as the single biggest factor when choosing what to plant, but chasing this can sometimes obscure more complex realities. For example, while oilseed rape indicates stronger gross margins than beans, establishment risks and pests threaten profitability. Beans, while less lucrative on paper, support weed control, mitigate risk, and reduce nitrogen needs.

Plans should remain flexible. If conditions are unsuitable for winter crops, switch to spring crops; a lower-margin spring crop often outperforms a poorly established winter crop. So rather than question ‘which crop earns the most?’ ask ‘what delivers the best return within my system?’ That small shift in thinking can change everything.

The biggest anxiety facing growers is uncertainty, such as weather events, fertiliser prices and global politics affecting grain trade. Yet proactive planning can help to mitigate these risks.

Choose break crops that complement your drilling and harvesting windows, not ones that create bottlenecks. A compromised crop drilled too late or harvested in poor conditions rarely reaches yield potential. A 10% increase in wheat yield, achieved through better establishment, can reduce the cost of production by £13/t.

Volatility in global fertiliser markets driven by geopolitical events makes it vital to budget for input costs. Explore crops like pulses that require lower nitrogen, providing a natural hedge against price spikes.

Then, with November 2026 wheat currently at £192/t, there’s a window of opportunity to secure forward contracts and protect your bottom line. If you’re growing a premium crop, line up your buyer before the seed goes in the ground.

And while variable costs like seed, fertiliser, and sprays tend to get the most attention, fixed costs can be the hidden iceberg beneath the financial surface. While higher wheat yields improve financial output, a lower level of fixed costs will make the greatest difference to performance per hectare. This is an area where more scrutiny is sorely needed.

By Will Foyle, Farm Management Consultant, Hutchinsons